Bhubaneswar: After the Lok Sabha elections, there was a lot of discussion that Prime Minister Narendra Modi, especially after 2019, that his appeal does not have that much impact in the state assembly elections. So, he had challenges in many states where the Chief Minister of the Bharatiya Janata Party has never been elected or has not been elected for a very long time.
In two states—Odisha and Delhi–the BJP succeeded in forming the government and making its own Chief Minister. The challenge of two states is still left and the two states where elections are going to be held in the near future are West Bengal and Bihar.
One of the two states where success has been achieved is Odisha along with the Lok Sabha elections. In Odisha, ever since the state was formed, there has never been a BJP Chief Minister. When Naveen Patnaik came into politics in the state and formed his new party in the name of Biju Janata Dal. In 1999, BJP had an alliance with it which broke in 2009. Till then–from 1999 to 2009 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections–both the parties had a coalition government.
The second state is Delhi which is not a full state but has an Assembly. The BJP was out of power there for the past 27 years.
In Orissa, Naveen Patnaik was the Chief Minister for 24 years. He was a very popular leader. Arvind Kejriwal has been the Chief Minister in Delhi for more than 10 years. The schemes of the state governments in both the states, especially for the poor sections of the society, were successful. Both Patnaik and Kejriwal were popular. In such a situation, it was difficult for any party to make a dent.
The BJP was convinced that to make a dent was to have a local leader for the post of Chief Minister and that too a strong and popular candidate with a mass base to win elections. It was being said that BJP has not been able to create any state level leader since independence, especially since the formation of the state of Odisha while the same was being said in Delhi that in 27 years from 1998, when BJP lost to Congress, it has not been able to create any state leadership.
But BJP proved through its electoral performance that elections can be won without having a strong candidate for the post of Chief Minister or even without having any candidate and not announcing freebies. Mohan Manjhi has become the Chief Minister in Odisha and not many people knew him before his name was announced for Chief Ministership.
The BJP proved that no party can take advantage of anti-incumbency of the ruling party only by making allegations, no matter how big the anti-incumbency is. It established that exposing the shortcomings of the ruling party and convincing the people about it can win elections.
In Odisha, the work of Naveen Patnaik’s government and his schemes for the poor and the farmers were very popular. They had a great impact. Similarly, the schemes of Arvind Kejriwal’s government in Delhi had a great impact, especially regarding electricity and water or the other facilities that were being provided.
But the BJP did what it did in Haryana, Jammu or Maharashtra. In electoral politics, establishing contact and dialogue with the people and doing it repeatedly works. BJP workers and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh volunteers talked to the people at the grassroot level, established contact with them and communicated with them through different means.
The two other states where the BJP has a challenge are Bihar and West Bengal where elections are going to be held towards the end of this year and next year respectively.
In Bihar the BJP is in alliance with JDU and two or three small parties. Nitish Kumar is Chief Minister in Bihar whose entire politics has been ‘power’ and the chief minister’s chair. If Nitish Kumar is removed from the chief minister’s chair, his magic ends.
The situation is changing in Bihar and the graph of BJP is rising while the popularity graph of the JD and RJD is also going down for the first time in the last 25-30 years.
BJP had fought the 2021 assembly elections in West Bengal on a very high pitch. It needed 70 percent Hindu votes to win the State. To make this happen the election in West Bengal will also have to be Mamata Banerjee vs Narendra Modi as West Bengal too does not have any leader who can stand against Mamata Banerjee.
Nobody has the answer to the question right now if Bhartiya Janata Party will have its chief minister for the first time in West Bengal. It is within the realm of possibility but it is very difficult.
