New Delhi: May 15: IMD has come out with the forecast of Monsoon onset over Kerala and said, ‘This year, the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala is likely to be slightly delayed as compared to normal date of onset of 1st June. The monsoon onset over Kerala this year is likely to be on 5th June with a model error of ± 4 days’.
Advance of the southwest monsoon over Indian main land is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterizing the transition from hot and dry season to a rainy season. As the monsoon progresses northward, relief from scorching summer temperatures is experienced over the areas.
Southwest monsoon sets over Kerala on 1st June with a standard deviation of about 7 days. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onward. An indigenously developed state of the art statistical model with a model error of ± 4 days is used for the purpose.
In the Indian monsoon region, initial monsoon rains are experienced over south Andaman Sea and the monsoon winds then advance in a north-westwards across the Bay of Bengal. As per the new normal dates of monsoon onset/progress, the southwest monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea around 22nd May.
At present, a well-marked Low-Pressure Area lies over southeast Bay of Bengal & neighborhood. It is very likely to concentrate into a Depression over the same region during next 12 hours and further intensify into a Cyclonic Storm over central parts of south Bay of Bengal by 16th May evening. Associated with this event, conditions are likely to become favorable for advance of Southwest Monsoon into Andaman Sea, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, during next 48 hours. Past data suggest that there is no association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country. (Inputs from PIB)
