Bhubaneswar, Dec. 28: With the global temperature set to rise between 2 to 6 degrees C by the end of the 21st century, the number of extreme weather events would increase substantially, eminent climatologist Prof. Uma Charan Mohanty warned on Sunday.
“The temperature, which rose by a small margin of 0.7 degree C in the previous 150 years, is set to go up by 2 degrees C at the present level of activities leading to emission of green house gases. If it is not controlled, it could rise by 6 degrees C during the same period,” Prof. Mohanty, Emeritus Professor at the School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences, IIT, Bhubaneswar, said while addressing the conference on ‘Global Warming, Sea Level Rise and Livelihood Adaptation Strategies along the East Coast of India’ jointly organized by the SOA University and Kwantlen Polytechnic University, Vancouver, Canada.
Prof. Mohanty said the rise in temperature would cause an 80 to 90 per cent increase in the number of intense category four and five cyclones though the number of tropical cyclones would remain the same or would even register a decrease. We would also witness heavy concentrated rains or dry spells leading to droughts, he said.
Prof P.K.Nanda, Dean (Research) of SOA University presided over the inaugural session which was also addressed by Dr. A.K.Patnaik, Project Director, Integrated Coastal Zone Management Project (ICZMP), Prof. P.K.Jena, former Director General, CSIR, Dr. S.C.Sahu, Director, Indian Meteorological Department, Bhubaneswar and Prof. P.K.Sahu, Dean, Faculty of Engineering of SOA University.
The conference has been organized in collaboration with the Foundation for Environmental and Social Research (FESR) and Bhubaneswar chapter of Indian Meteorological Society.
Pointing out that the sea level had risen by 20 cm between 1900 and 2000, Prof. Mohanty said it was expected to rise between 52 cm and 98 cm during the current century.
“If the sea level rose by nearly one metre, it would have severe impact in Bangladesh and the east coast of India, including Odisha, substantially affecting the low lying areas and river mouths. The impact would not be similar on the Odisha coast as it would be different depending on the location of the coast,” he said.
“In case a super cyclone strikes Odisha, the sea surge at Gopalpur in Ganjam district could be of 2 to 3 metres high while Chandipur in Balasore district could witness waves of 5 to 7 metres height. This means you could not have a uniform strategy for the entire coast of Odisha which has to be based on much observation and planning,” Prof. Mohanty said.
Asia, he pointed out, would be the worst victim of global warming because of its long coastlines and developing nature of its nations.
Urging institutions like the SOA University to focus their attention on complex issues like climate change, Prof. Mohanty said adaptation would be the best practice to cope with the emerging situations in future.
Describing climate change as very complex, Dr. Sahu said the drought situation prevailing in Odisha at present was caused by the78 per cent deficit rainfall in the month of October. The current year was also hotter comparable to 2009 when the average temperature was found to be 34 degrees C.
Heat wave days in the state had also increased since 1998 when more than 2,000 people died in the intense summer heat, but precautionary measures since adopted by the administration had helped check such fatalities, he said.
Dr. Patnaik underscored the need for an integrated approach to deal with the evolving complex situation saying sea surges and inundations would adversely affect the eco systems with rise in sea level destroying mangroves and estuaries and impacting agriculture.
Battered by the cyclone Philin, the Chilka lake had temporarily turned into a fresh water lake for about five months. But the resilience of the lagoon’s ecosystem enabled it to get its brackish character restored and come back to its earlier form, he said.
