Moscow, March 16: Vladimir Putin is willing to jettison President Bashar al-Assad as part of a deal to end the five-year conflict in Syria, Western powers believe.
Following the surprise declaration by the Russian President that his five-month military mission in the country had fulfilled its objective, diplomats are convinced that Moscow could be ready to force the Syrian leader to allow a political transition.
Russian warplanes and troops began leaving bases in Syria on 15 March, just hours after Mr Putin’s shock announcement that he would begin a partial draw-down, timed for maximum impact to coincide with the fifth anniversary of the Syrian uprising and the resumption of peace talks in Geneva.
While they remain cautious about the extent of the military reduction, Western diplomats predict that Mr Putin is now prepared to sacrifice the Syrian President.
After a military campaign that was officially launched to tackle terrorist groups but has largely focused on bolstering the ailing Syrian army, the diplomats say that the Russian president has achieved his aims of protecting Russia’s interests in Syria and re-establishing Moscow as a major player in the Middle East. They believe that Mr Putin has no qualms about jettisoning Mr Assad as long as there is continuity with the old Baathist regime that allows them to remain a key player in the country’s future – and retain its two military bases in the country. “We understand that Putin is not tied inextricably to Assad,” one diplomat said.
On 15 March, Syrians marked the fifth anniversary of the start of the uprising in their country. Having begun in 2011 with peaceful protests against President Assad, it descended into a deadly armed conflict that has claimed the lives of at least 250,000 people, spawned a series of terrorist groups and increasingly dragged in neighbouring countries and global powers.
